Surviving without El Goog

Doesn't it still miss the major sticking point; Google Play Services? That's not a problem for Huawei in their native China, where Google barely have a presence, but every western market consists of Android users who already have access to Google Play Services, and already have phones loaded with applications that take advantage of it.

Not having access to Google Play Services has historically crippled anyone who's tried to launch an alternative OS that could otherwise run Android apps.

Blackberry BB10 could run Android apps. Despite being a recognised and trusted name, Blackberry got nowhere with it.

Amazon launched the Fire phone, which was based on AOSP, ran Android apps, and even had it's own preexisting app store loaded with Android apps. In the end, Amazon couldn't give those phones away.

Samsung have Tizen; the in-house OS from the world's largest Android OEM. It too runs Android apps. Tizen's mobile market share is below 1%.

It's the Google Play Services that matter; not just the Android branding or access to Android apps.

Without Google Play Services, every developer whose app relies on location services will have to redevelop their app for whatever alternative location service Huawei provide.

Without Google Play Services, every developer will need to redevelop their app for whatever payment process Huawei provide for buying apps and making IAP's.

Without Google Play Services, any developer whose app relies on SafetyNet validation (nearly every banking app, many DRM related media apps) will need to redevelop their application for whatever alternative Huawei provides. It took years for banks to get onboard with things like mobile payments with Android; will they be any quicker with Huawei?

Without Google, any apps that rely on Firebase (Google estimates there are over a million devs using Firebase), will need to be redeveloped to work with whatever alternative Huawei can provide.

Without Google Play Services, any apps that run as app bundles will need to be redeveloped to run on Huawei devices.

What's the incentive for app developers to do any of the above, when they already have their hands full supporting hundreds of devices and billions of users in an established market?

Furthermore, without Google Play Services, any Android user moving to a Huawei device will lose the ability to backup and restore to their new Huawei device, making Huawei phones uniquely hard to migrate to.

None of the Huawei devices running their own OS will be able to Cast, or access Google Assistant. And, regardless of what OS Huawei use, none of them can be sold in the US.

Not to mention, any existing Android users who move to Huawei's in-house OS will need to repurchase the Android apps they already own, and the executive order blocking Google from engaging with Huawei applies to other US companies too; so in addition to Google's apps being unavailable, Huawei's app store won't include any apps by Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, eBay, PayPal, Amex, etc.

Given the big names who have tried and failed without some of the disadvantages Huawei now face, and in light of the above challenges, how likely is Huawei to succeed here?

Commenter Jimk4003 on Huawai's plans to forge its own path without Google's Play Services