Logo Felix Elsner

Ukraine War – Hubris

A story in three acts, not necessarily based on real events.

Act one

Force X maneuvers their navy fairly close to shores of Force Y, ostentatiously threatening amphibious landing. Force Y seemingly compelled to keep a contingent of its manpower pinned to avert landing. Waters around Force Y shores heavily mined, with some mines coming loose and drifting due to unfavourable weather.

Act two

Force Y in possession of unmanned aerial systems with capable EW component. Decides to “risk” one of said systems by flying it close to minor Force X ship in what Force X assesses to be a major blunder.

Force X naval air defense/CIWS engages target. Target successfully repelled and maybe even destroyed. Seemingly huge blow to Force Y, who is only said to field around 40 units of said type.

Force X sees opportunity to convert engagement into internet clout, MoD triumphantly releases footage revealing response procedure and timings.

Time passes.

Act three

Heavy seas. Force X, aware of Force Y fielding anti-ship cruise missiles, nevertheless maneuvers pride of their regional fleet named for capital city within striking distance.

Force Y sorties unmanned aerial asset near capital ship, drawing attention from ship’s air defense systems, paints target for ASCM closing in on ship at wavetop height. Force X AD distracted. Hit on target, ammunition stores ignite.

Force X claims spontaneous combustion aboard ship, claims no enemy action, claims crew successfully evacuated, claims fires put out, claims ship returning to port under own power.

Short time passes.

Force X forced to admit their capital ship has joined the submarine forces.

Addendum

Force X - which had previously denied passage to Force Y naval assets through regional strait - unable to replenish naval assets in regional body of water due to third party blocking access to oceans, invoking archaic treaty from the time of the predecessor to the predecessor of Force X.

(Note: Maybe it was just a mine hit. Time will tell…)

Ukraine War – Preliminary military observations

Disclaimer

After leaving several drafts sitting on my hard drive for months, I’ve decided to publish them, unfinished as they may be. This post is one such draft.

This post serves as a snapshot in time of my observations and biases. It is not meant as endorsement of any particular action or policy.

Wrong assumptions

I would have expected these parts of infrastructure to collapse immediately: - Internet access seriously disturbed and degraded - Military net: - Ground lines of comms, satellite comms jammed or sabotaged - Networks thoroughly infiltrated - Civilian 3G/4G towers sabotaged and taken down - Air defense network wiped out - Rail network and road-based logistics attacked at dispatch centers - Black-sea based shipping taken out by destroying loading/unloading areas of ports, cyber attacks on dispatch and command - All hard drives wiped

NotPetya was incredibly stupid in hindsight, underlining the need for hardened networks not only for military, but also preparing civilian sectors.

I would not have expected COIN (for police/special forces) and insurgency training by foreign advisors to pay off, but it seems to have created force multipliers. Military advisers seem to be doing net positive instead of teaching wrong doctrine.

Purge of Russian-aligned personnel in military and security agencies seems to have left less of a knowledge gap than expected and in fact has allowed competent junior officers to rise, bringing new tactics and tech with them.

Weird how so many different countries supplying widely different arms, military aid and intelligence has actually resulted in well-planned deployment of Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine War – Beginning

Another year has passed by without me taking the time to reflect and write down my current thoughts on matters that move me. I’ve noticed I’m happy to discuss them with my family, friends and acquaintances, but did not care to discipline myself enough to formulate those thoughts into writing that I could refer to and look back upon at some point in the future.

Those topics concern European unity, values and integrity, as well as security matters in the context of the conflict in eastern Europe now ongoing for more than eight years, threatening to spill over into the wider European sphere.

This series will focus on the sources I think are valuable, my analysis, and how my thinking has already changed back-and-forth multiple times.

Grundgesetz – Ending this series

This should not come as a surprise, but I never managed to write about more than the first ten articles, and the legal analysis was absolute rubbish.

As such, this series should be considered closed. This post is just housekeeping, carry on.

Moving

I’m moving places again. What used to be a source of pride, not being weighed down by anything and anyone, is becoming a nuisance.

The joy of discovering the unfamiliar, learn, train and enlargen one’s knowledge of it, then moving on to the next and letting the “old” quickly fizzle out - that has been a driving force in my life. Yet I have seldom experienced true mastery in any discipline, something to be passionate about and knowledgeable enough to carry deep conversations about. I am longing to change that.

I have begun planting roots, becoming involved beyond the temporary, embracing the mundane and familiar. But I must be careful to not let the pendulum swing too far into the other direction, being too content with the current state of affairs and closed off to meeting new people and insights.

Venezuela: Un país de múltiples facetas

I recently held this presentation in my Spanish class. It has been an exercise in depression learning about the various ailings that have befallen this once so hopeful nation. The tone of this is very biased, but I found it complicated to craft a balanced picture and also project optimism in under five minutes. The positive spin is a lie of course — Venezuela is utterly doomed. Attached are the presentation PDF and some reports for further study.

Me gustería contarle sobre Venezuela.

Yo he elegido el porque es un país con muchas facetas.

Está localizado en Sudamerica, entre Colombia y Brasil. Tiene cuatros regiones: Primero, los andes, que son montañosos. Segundo, la región Orinoco con el río orinoco. Tercero, la región Maraibo (y el lago Maracaibo, tambíen un ciudad llamado Maracaibo). En cuarto lugar, una region llamada Guayana venezolana, al lado del país Guyana.

El país tiene veintinueve mil habitantes. Se habla Castellano y lenguas indígenas variadas. La mayor parte de Venezuela es católico.

Los tres ciudades más grandes en Venezuela son: Caracas con dos millones habitantes, Maracaibo con un millón seiscientos mil habitantes, y Valencia con un millón habitantes.

Por deporte, les gustan más el Béisbal, el Fútbol y el Baloncesto. Para los aficionados al fútbol aquí: El mejor club del país es el FC Caracas; tienen un estadio que puede contener treinta mil personas

El clima es muy caliente, con temperaturas entre 30 y 35 grados.

Venezuela tiene mucha cultura, con muchas tradiciones. Se bailen, por ejemplo, el Joropo, el Sebucán y el baile del tambor. Esos bailes son mezclas de las culturas indígenas, la influencia europea y ritmos que se originaron en África.

Pero… no todo está bien.

Un país… en crisis

Mira el índice de criminalidad: La cantidad de delitos ha aumentado significativamente. El precio del petróleo ha caído masivamente, y la calidad del petróleo venezolano es mala. Hay una inflación severa, la gente no puede comprar las necesidades. No hay muchos abastecimientos, porque casi no se puede cambiar bolívares en dólares. Los suministros médicos son malos; los hospitales no tienen todos los medicamentos necesarios.

Como puede ver, hay problemas. Simple, ¿verdad?

Quien son las manifestantes? Qué quiere la oposición?

Los manifestantes no son hippies que están dando flores a la policía. Están protestando, si, pero los líderes más fuertes de la oposición consiste en narcotraficantes, paramilitares y contratistas militares privados. Ha habido asesinatos políticos en jueces, estudiantes y organizadores comunitarios. La mitad de los muertos fueron muertos por la oposición.

María Machado, una de los líderes de la oposición, estaba diciendo este abril:

“La meta no es hacer elecciones en el marco del régimen criminal de Maduro. […] El primer paso es deponer al régimen.”

Había una presentación sobre Colombia hace unas pocas semanas: Es un país muy alegre y hermoso, pero también hay mucha violencia. No solo a causa de los narcotraficantes, principalmente debido a la guerra del gobierno derechista bajo Álvaro Uribe con los FARC.

Los FARC-EP luchan por la tierra para cultivar en, por la medicina, y por su dignidad, porque el gobierno no los reconoce a sus derechos. Las fuerzas de seguridad de Colombia, con paramilitares, han ejecutado a más de 4000 civiles (civiles, sin contar guerrillas) durante el reinado del Uribe. Esa puede ser la razón de los militares venezolanos para apoyar Maduro y el Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela.

Las políticas de la oposición quieren prohibir los sindicatos, privatizar todo, disparar a cientos de miles de personas y reducir aún más el gasto en salud y educación.

Quizás… podría haber una guerra con Guyana sobre disputas territoriales, como la “Guerra de las Malvinas” entre Argentina y Gran Bretaña.

Y puede ser aún peor: Un montón de gente todavía recuerda los años de atrocidades en toda América del Sur.

Por esos razones, la gente de Venezuela tiene miedo de lo que podría suceder si falla Nicolás Maduro. Más o menos un tercio de la población son chavistas y un tercio son derechistas. El último tercio no apoya al gobierno sino que también sospecha de la oposición.

Un país… con esperanza

Pero hay esperanza: Venezuela tiene buenas relacionas con sus vecinos, el comercio es bien, hay estrecha cooperación con Cuba y Ecuador. Venezuela no es una república bananera.

Habrá una asamblea constituyente el 30 de julio, hay una esperanza real de cambio y reformas. El tiempo dirá cómo se resolverá esta crisis. A pesar de la continua violencia y agitación, Venezuela sigue siendo uno de los países más felices del mundo.

¡Gracias por la atención!

Addendum

 Previous

Page 3 of 7

Next